Question

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction2045-08-21 (2033-02-09 - 2063-01-21)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2080-11-09

...

2033-02-09 08:04

2045-08-21 07:20

2063-01-21 13:58

12.6%

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Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Information technology

Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm

Diffie–Hellman key exchange

Microsoft

Google says its breakthrough quantum chip can’t break modern cryptography

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Google unveils a quantum chip. Could it help unlock the universe's deepest secrets?

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

What’s Happening With Google Stock?

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2039-04-25

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

2047-02-05

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Information technology

Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm

Diffie–Hellman key exchange

Microsoft

Google says its breakthrough quantum chip can’t break modern cryptography

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Google unveils a quantum chip. Could it help unlock the universe's deepest secrets?

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

What’s Happening With Google Stock?

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2039-04-25

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

2047-02-05

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When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Make a Prediction

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

Comments

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?