Question

When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction2026-01-06 (2025-07-28 - 2026-11-15)

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weight:

	<2022-01-01	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2035-12-31
community	0.3%	Jul 2025	Jan 2026	Nov 2026	0.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2022-01-01	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Jul 2025	—
median	Jan 2026	—
upper 75%	Nov 2026	—
Upper bound
>2035-12-31	0.2%	—

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Nov 13, 2020

Closes:

Jan 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2040

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Internal combustion engine

End of the road for electric cars? Study reveals how quickly the battery degrades in EVs

Daily Mail•Feb 13, 2025

EPA greenlights Cali EVs

American Thinker•Feb 16, 2025

EVs 50% cheaper to run than a petrol car... but with a higher upfront cost, here's how many years you'll need to drive it to break even

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

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