Question

Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction52.7% (43% - 63%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 52.7%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Nov 9, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2031

Electric vehicle battery

Lithium-ion battery

Lithium

Australia women's national soccer team

Bolivia Erupts in Protest over Chinese and Russian Companies Taking over Lithium Supply

Breitbart•Feb 13, 2025

Russia wants a lucrative share of the world's lithium market, but it's hitting roadblocks

Business Insider•Feb 17, 2025

Bolivians Protest Deals Allowing Foreign Firms to Exploit Lithium

Democracy Now•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

58.2

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

65%

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.64

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Nov 9, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2031

Electric vehicle battery

Lithium-ion battery

Lithium

Australia women's national soccer team

Bolivia Erupts in Protest over Chinese and Russian Companies Taking over Lithium Supply

Breitbart•Feb 13, 2025

Russia wants a lucrative share of the world's lithium market, but it's hitting roadblocks

Business Insider•Feb 17, 2025

Bolivians Protest Deals Allowing Foreign Firms to Exploit Lithium

Democracy Now•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

58.2

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

65%

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.64