Question

Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?

Resolved :Yes

29 comments29

Total Forecasters171

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-19.3

Community Peer Score

5.1

median 99.0%mean 94.2%

Authors:

t_adamczewski

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Russian interference in the 2016 US elections

Obstruction of justice

US Department of Justice

Robert Mueller

Donald Trump

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Comments

? comments

Authors:

t_adamczewski

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Russian interference in the 2016 US elections

Obstruction of justice

US Department of Justice

Robert Mueller

Donald Trump

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Trump New York Case May Be 'Rule of Law's Last Stand'—Ex-Prosecutor

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05