Question
When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction2025-01-09 (2023-12-23 - 2026-02-11)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Dec 2023 | — |
| median | Jan 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | Feb 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2029-12-30 | 9.8% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
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Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch