Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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M

Question

A major United States earthquake by 2023?

Resolved :No17%
36
65
Total Forecasters319
Community Prediction17% (10% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 17%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
26.5
Community Peer Score
32.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
paulgabrielsen
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Natural Sciences
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Mexico
West Coast of the United States
Hawaii
South Carolina
Intermountain West
San Andreas Fault
Wasatch Front
1906 San Francisco earthquake
2016 Old Iliamna earthquake

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