Question

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

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Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

median 30.0%mean 32.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

47%

Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?

21.9%

Will there be widespread adoption of e-fuels in the US before 2050?

25%

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a surplus of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says

Business Insider•Nov 15, 2024

Time to Unleash American Energy Prosperity

Townhall•Nov 15, 2024

Trump’s pick for fracker-in-chief will have a tough time pumping a lot more oil

CNN•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?

47%

Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?

21.9%

Will there be widespread adoption of e-fuels in the US before 2050?

25%