M

Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?

Resolved :No
19
41
Total Forecasters187
Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
54.0
Community Peer Score
9.3
median 5.0%mean 6.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Technology
Thermonuclear weapon
List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea
Military science
History of the Teller–Ulam design
Trinity (nuclear test)
United Nations Security Council
Physics
History
TNT equivalent
Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

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