Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?

Resolved :No5%

41 comments41

Total Forecasters187

Community Prediction5% (4% - 8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.0

Community Peer Score

9.3

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Nov 17, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2022

Geopolitics

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

United Nations Security Council

List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea

History of the Teller–Ulam design

Trinity (nuclear test)

North Korea Fires Hypersonic Missile in First Weapons Test of 2025

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

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