M

Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?

Resolved :No5%
19
41
Total Forecasters187
Community Prediction5% (4% - 8%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
54.0
Community Peer Score
9.3
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Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Technology
2020-2021 Leaderboard
Thermonuclear weapon
List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea
Military science
History of the Teller–Ulam design
Trinity (nuclear test)
United Nations Security Council
Physics
History
TNT equivalent

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