Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?

Resolved :No

41 comments41

Total Forecasters187

Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.0

Community Peer Score

9.3

median 5.0%mean 6.7%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Technology

Thermonuclear weapon

List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea

Military science

History of the Teller–Ulam design

Trinity (nuclear test)

United Nations Security Council

Physics

History

TNT equivalent

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

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