Question
When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
Resolved :Apr 18, 20212021-03-23Total Forecasters87
Community Prediction2021-03-23 (2021-03-05 - 2021-04-15)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 05 Mar 2021 | — |
| median | 23 Mar 2021 | — |
| upper 75% | 15 Apr 2021 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2022-12-30 | 0.7% | — |
What was the final result?Apr 18, 2021
Community Baseline Score
27.9
Community Peer Score
3.0
Authors:
Opened:Nov 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2022
Resolves:Jan 1, 2022
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2022
Resolves:Jan 1, 2022