Question

When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?

Resolved :Dec 11, 20202020-12-16

24 comments24

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction2020-12-16 (2020-12-12 - 2020-12-21)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2021-01-14

...

2020-12-12 14:22

2020-12-16 06:46

2020-12-21 13:17

3.8%

What was the final result?Dec 11, 2020

Community Baseline Score

87.2

Community Peer Score

22.3

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

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Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

United States Secretary of Homeland Security

Food and Drug Administration

Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act

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Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

265

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

United States Secretary of Homeland Security

Food and Drug Administration

Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act

Russia To Launch Free Cancer Vaccine in 2025

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

COVID: Updated CDC Map Reveals Infection Rates Across US

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Vaccine misinformation distorts science – a biochemist explains how RFK Jr. and his lawyer’s claims threaten public health

The Conversation•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

265

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?

Make a Prediction

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

Comments

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?