Question

When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?

Resolved :Dec 11, 2020

24 comments24

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction2020-12-16

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2021-01-14

...

2020-12-12 14:22

2020-12-16 06:46

2020-12-21 13:17

3.8%

What was the final result?Dec 11, 2020

Community Baseline Score

87.2

Community Peer Score

22.3

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

United States Secretary of Homeland Security

Food and Drug Administration

Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

269

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