Question

By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?

Resolved :Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-3.5

Community Peer Score

5.7

median 70.0%mean 72.7%

Authors:

silly

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Donald Trump on social media

President of the US

Twitter

Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

11%

Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

silly

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Donald Trump on social media

President of the US

Twitter

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Wired•Oct 11, 2024

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Raw Story•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

11%

Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?

25%