Question

Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?

Resolved :Yes51%

103 comments103

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction51% (45% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-11.3

Community Peer Score

18.4

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Authors:

Alexander230

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Virology

Social Democrats (Denmark)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

South East England

Epidemiology

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Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Alexander230

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Virology

Social Democrats (Denmark)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

South East England

Epidemiology

Doctors warn of a 'quad-demic' this winter as four viral infections soar and mask mandates creep back in

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Mpox became a global health emergency for the second time in 2024

New Scientist•Dec 14, 2024

Malaria Is Rising With a Vengeance, Killing Massive Numbers, Most in Africa

Mother Jones•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

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Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Comments

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?