Question

Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?

Resolved :Yes51%

103 comments103

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction51% (45% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-11.3

Community Peer Score

18.4

Authors:

Alexander230

Opened:

Dec 22, 2020

Closes:

Jun 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jul 7, 2022

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

South East England

Genetics

Social Democrats (Denmark)

New mpox strain confirmed in US state for first time

FOX News•Feb 14, 2025

Latest Symptoms of COVID-19: New Strain Presents Like the Common Cold

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Experts are anxious that bird flu could become airborne — and jump-start another pandemic

Independent•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

Comments

? comments