Question

Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?

Resolved :5

27 comments27

Total Forecasters83

Community Prediction4.93

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

3.016

4.929

5.027

What was the final result?5

Community Baseline Score

136.7

Community Peer Score

49.9

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.8%

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

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Independent•Nov 12, 2024

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Spectator (UK)•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.8%

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%