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Question
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
Resolved :
5
4.93
4
27 comments
27
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
83
Community Prediction
4.93 (3.02 - 5.03)
Make a Prediction
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
3.016
4.929
5.027
What was the final result?
5
Community Baseline Score
136.7
Community Peer Score
49.9
Additional Scores
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here
.
Background Info
Authors:
SimonM
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Conservative Party (UK)
Rishi Sunak
Priti Patel
Jeremy Hunt
Michael Gove
Boris Johnson
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Authors:
SimonM
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Conservative Party (UK)
Rishi Sunak
Priti Patel
Jeremy Hunt
Michael Gove
Boris Johnson
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
Reform UK claims to be ‘real opposition’ with more members than Tories
Guardian
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Dec 26, 2024
Which political party leader had the best year?
Spectator (UK)
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Dec 31, 2024
'Historic Moment': Farage's Reform Party is Now Larger Than the Tories
Breitbart
•
Dec 26, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
Reform UK claims to be ‘real opposition’ with more members than Tories
Guardian
•
Dec 26, 2024
Which political party leader had the best year?
Spectator (UK)
•
Dec 31, 2024
'Historic Moment': Farage's Reform Party is Now Larger Than the Tories
Breitbart
•
Dec 26, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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