Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

10
22
Total Forecasters61
Community Prediction2033-04-06 (2029-08-26 - 2035-01-01)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2035-01-01
...
...
...
...
2029-08-26 11:04
2033-04-06 22:09
>2035-01-01 00:00
35.7%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
tetraspace
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
Politics
Scotland Act 1998
Scotland
2014 Scottish independence referendum
Proposed second Scottish independence referendum
2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
Boris Johnson

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