Question

When will 1bn people have been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction2021-10-14

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2023-12-30

...

2021-09-01 12:27

2021-10-14 08:29

2021-12-18 16:37

6.5%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

7.99

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

76%

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