Question

When will 1bn people have been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction2021-10-14 (2021-09-01 - 2021-12-18)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2023-12-30

...

2021-09-01 12:27

2021-10-14 08:29

2021-12-18 16:37

6.5%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

This drug is the 'breakthrough of the year' — and it could mean the end of the HIV epidemic

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

SK Bioscience approved for Japanese encephalitis vaccine trial in Australia

Korea Herald•Dec 13, 2024

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

This drug is the 'breakthrough of the year' — and it could mean the end of the HIV epidemic

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

SK Bioscience approved for Japanese encephalitis vaccine trial in Australia

Korea Herald•Dec 13, 2024

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

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When will 1bn people have been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

Make a Prediction

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Comments

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?