Question

Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?

Resolved :Ambiguous

39 comments39

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction38%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 38.0%mean 36.7%

Authors:

AvrahamEisenberg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

Before 2032 will a universal influenza vaccine be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

59%

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AvrahamEisenberg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Drugs like Ozempic may lower risk of early death by 74% following a stroke: study

New York Post•Nov 11, 2024

AstraZeneca says it takes China investigation ‘very seriously’

Guardian•Nov 12, 2024

AstraZeneca’s numbers are good but trouble in China could drag it down | Nils Pratley

Guardian•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

Before 2032 will a universal influenza vaccine be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

59%

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%