Question

When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?

Resolved :Apr 19, 20212021-04-22

59 comments59

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction2021-04-22 (2021-04-17 - 2021-05-01)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2021-12-24

...

2021-04-17 10:25

2021-04-22 16:55

2021-05-01 18:54

0.1%

What was the final result?Apr 19, 2021

Community Baseline Score

24.7

Community Beer Score

8.9

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Virology

COVID-19

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

US Department of Health and Human Services

Anthony Fauci

Food and Drug Administration

Alex Azar

Scott Gottlieb

Trump Draws False Link Between Vaccines and Autism in Interview

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Increasing Public Criticism, Confusion Over COVID-19 Response in U.S.

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US?

42.9

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Virology

COVID-19

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

US Department of Health and Human Services

Anthony Fauci

Food and Drug Administration

Alex Azar

Scott Gottlieb

Trump Draws False Link Between Vaccines and Autism in Interview

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Increasing Public Criticism, Confusion Over COVID-19 Response in U.S.

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US?

42.9

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When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?

Make a Prediction

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US?

Comments

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US?