Question

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction45%

Make a Prediction

community: 45%

median 45.0%mean 46.0%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

5.2e-1

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Nobel prize for A-bomb survivors’ group boosts hope for Japanese seeking a nuke-free world

Associated Press•Oct 11, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

5.2e-1

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%