Question

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction45% (40% - 50%)

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50%

community: 45%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Pakistan and Bahamas join push for global pact to phase out fossil fuels

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

0.357

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Pakistan and Bahamas join push for global pact to phase out fossil fuels

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

0.357

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

55%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Make a Prediction

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Comments

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?