Question
Question
Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction47%
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median 47.0%mean 40.9%
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Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?
44%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
86%
Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
30%
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Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?
44%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
86%
Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
30%