Question

A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?

Resolved :No37%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction37% (25% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

39.0

Community Peer Score

8.3

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

muzzle

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Geophysical Research Letters

Map: 7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Near Vanuatu

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Massive 7.3-magnitude Vanuatu earthquake triggers tsunami warnings

Independent•Dec 17, 2024

Magnitude-7.3 earthquake causes widespread damage in Pacific island nation of Vanuatu

New York Post•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

23.2%

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

71.9k

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

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