Question

How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

Resolved :3.94k4.39k

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction4.39k (3.94k - 4.89k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<2k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>6.7k
community	2.1%	3.943k	4.391k	4.892k	3.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2k	2.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	3.943k	—
median	4.391k	—
upper 75%	4.892k	—
Upper bound
>6.7k	3.5%	—

What was the final result?3.94k

Community Baseline Score

55.9

Community Peer Score

20.6

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 14, 2020

Closes:

Feb 14, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Natural language processing

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