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What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates?

102 forecasters

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Date	resolution
June 2021	30.6
Date	25th	median	75th
November 2026	23.8 ...	32.7 ...	42.8 ...
June 2030	17.2 ...	26.5 ...	40.6 ...

community

<15

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50

2.2%

26.92

31.81

39.96

13.4%

What was the final result?30.6

Community Baseline Score

34.3

Community Peer Score

17.5

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 66

June 2021

November 2026

June 2030

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

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