Question

What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?

Resolved :86.886.6

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction86.6 (86.5 - 87.1)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>95
community	86.46	86.57	87.05	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	86.46	—
median	86.57	—
upper 75%	87.05	—
Upper bound
>95	0.3%	—

What was the final result?86.8

Community Baseline Score

42.1

Community Peer Score

42.7

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 14, 2020

Closes:

Feb 13, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

ImageNet

Database

Machine learning

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91.9

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94.6

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