Question

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction6.97k

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My Prediction

community

<500

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100k

...

1.9%

4.671k

6.974k

10.23k

1.0%

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MetaculusOutlooks

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Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

14.4k

How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?

19.4k

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?

50k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

How AI Is Redefining Our Understanding of Risk | Opinion

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

14.4k

How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?

19.4k

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?

50k