Question

Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Resolved :No1%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

61.2

Community Peer Score

20.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Earth

NASA

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

NASA solar probe to make its closest ever pass of Sun

Raw Story•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Earth

NASA

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

NASA solar probe to make its closest ever pass of Sun

Raw Story•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?