Question

Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Resolved :No1%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

61.2

Community Peer Score

20.9

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 12, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 14, 2022

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Earth

NASA

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-12-23

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