Question

Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Resolved :No

35 comments35

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

61.2

Community Peer Score

20.9

median 1.0%mean 3.3%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

Earth

NASA

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-12-17

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

Earth

NASA

COP29: Planet-heating pollution to hit all-time high, dashing hopes it would start to drop in 2024

CNN•Nov 13, 2024

Last month was the second hottest October on RECORD: Global average temperatures hit 15.32°C - and scientists say 2024 is 'virtually certain' to be the warmest ever

Daily Mail•Nov 15, 2024

No sign of greenhouse gases increases slowing in 2023

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-12-17

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%