Question

Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?

Resolved :No

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median 1.0%mean 3.3%

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MetaculusOutlooks

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Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

Earth

NASA

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

Earth

NASA

2023 Was a Warm Year - Here's Why (Hint: It Wasn't Just Us)

Red State•Oct 23, 2024

The mystery of the missing La Niña continues – and we don't know why

New Scientist•Oct 23, 2024

Earth is likely to have its hottest year on record – again

Independent•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%