Question

Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction58%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-56.9

Community Peer Score

2.9

median 58.0%mean 53.7%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economist 2021

Environment & Climate

2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference

Paris Agreement

Glasgow

United Kingdom

United Nations Climate Change conference

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Australia urged to increase climate goal after UK announces ambitious 81% reduction target

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Cop summits ‘no longer fit for purpose’, say leading climate policy experts

Guardian•Nov 15, 2024

Former climate officials call for ‘fundamental overhaul’ of UN climate conference

PBS NewsHour•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?

22%

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

44.5

How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050 in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?

26.7

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