Question

What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

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Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction207

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community

<120

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>350

...

4.5%

173.3

206.6

258.5

7.5%

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What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9

What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

195

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

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Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Culture

Machine learning

Education

Aerospace engineering

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What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9

What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

195

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?