Question

Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?

Resolved :No33%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction33% (18% - 46%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

47.0

Community Peer Score

7.7

Authors:

gjm

Opened:

Dec 1, 2017

Closes:

Mar 1, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2019

Politics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

European Union

Conservative Party (UK)

Prime Minister of the UK

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expected to resign within days amid public outcry for Canadian leader to step down

Daily Mail•Jan 26, 2025

Canada PM Justin Trudeau could resign as early as Monday, reports say

Guardian•Jan 26, 2025

Justin Trudeau’s rule could end this week

Spectator (UK)•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

27%

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

19.9%

Comments

? comments