Question

Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?

Resolved :No33%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction33% (18% - 46%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

47.0

Community Peer Score

7.7

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

gjm

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

European Union

Conservative Party (UK)

Prime Minister of the UK

Canadian prime minister faces growing pressure from his own party to resign

PBS NewsHour•Dec 18, 2024

Canada’s prime minister faces calls to resign. Here’s what could happen next

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

Justin Trudeau looks set to lose power after key ally vows to topple him

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

0.8%

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

19.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

gjm

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2016-2020 Leaderboard

European Union

Conservative Party (UK)

Prime Minister of the UK

Canadian prime minister faces growing pressure from his own party to resign

PBS NewsHour•Dec 18, 2024

Canada’s prime minister faces calls to resign. Here’s what could happen next

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

Justin Trudeau looks set to lose power after key ally vows to topple him

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

0.8%

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

19.9%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?

Make a Prediction

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Comments

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?