Question

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

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Total Forecasters80

Community Prediction6.36

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>15

...

4.35

6.359

8.949

8.5%

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MetaculusOutlooks

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Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

Software

Gross domestic product

United States

Bureau of Economic Analysis

What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

5.17

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Artificial Intelligence

Software

Gross domestic product

United States

Bureau of Economic Analysis

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What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?

5.17

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k