Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?

6
11
Total Forecasters74
Community Prediction50k (37.2k - 50k)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<2k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
37.18k
>50k
>50k
50.5%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Progress Essay Contest
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
Artificial Intelligence
2016-2025 Leaderboard
ArXiv
Machine learning
DQN
Reinforcement learning
Q-learning
Temporal difference learning

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