Question

How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction21%

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community: 21%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

median 21.0%mean 18.4%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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Health & Pandemics

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

The end of smallpox was ... the beginning for mpox

NPR Online News•Oct 8, 2024

‘I Don't Know’ Is the Best Weapon Science Has Right Now

Bloomberg•Oct 9, 2024

The Bluebonic plague

American Thinker•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%