Question

How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?

Resolved :Below lower bound30M

26 comments26

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction...

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<30M

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3B

...

60.1%

<30M

36.8M

0.2%

What was the final result?Below lower bound

Community Baseline Score

110.5

Community Peer Score

3.2

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Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

International Air Transport Association

International Civil Aviation Organization

AAA: Record Number of Travelers Expected to Close Out 2024

Breitbart•Dec 27, 2024

The Paper Passport Is Dying

Wired•Dec 27, 2024

Safest Airlines in 2024 Ranked as Passengers Spooked by Flurry of Crashes

Newsweek•Dec 31, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

120k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

International Air Transport Association

International Civil Aviation Organization

AAA: Record Number of Travelers Expected to Close Out 2024

Breitbart•Dec 27, 2024

The Paper Passport Is Dying

Wired•Dec 27, 2024

Safest Airlines in 2024 Ranked as Passengers Spooked by Flurry of Crashes

Newsweek•Dec 31, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

120k

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How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

Comments

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?