Question

Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?

Resolved :Yes95%

53 comments53

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction95% (92% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

86.3

Community Peer Score

5.7

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Dec 27, 2020

Closes:

Jun 29, 2021

Resolves:

Nov 21, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

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