Question

Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?

Resolved :Yes

53 comments53

Total Forecasters201

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

86.3

Community Peer Score

5.7

median 95.0%mean 93.7%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

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