Question
Question
Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
Resolved :YesTotal Forecasters201
Community Prediction95%
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Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Baseline Score
86.3
Community Peer Score
5.7
median 95.0%mean 93.7%
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?
2025-01-01
Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?
5%
Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?
1%
Comments
? commentsAuthors:
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?
2025-01-01
Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?
5%
Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?
1%