Question

Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?

Resolved :Ambiguous

19 comments19

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction26%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 26%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 26.0%mean 27.6%

Authors:

AvrahamEisenberg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Billion-dollar betting markets predicted Kamala Harris' election loss to Donald Trump WEEKS before the experts

Daily Mail•Nov 11, 2024

How whizzkid Shayne Copland's startup Polymarket beat the polls to correctly predict Trump's win

Daily Mail•Nov 11, 2024

Polymarket and Kalshi Predicted Trump's Win. Now Comes the Hard Part.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at the start of 2027? (In billion USD)

4.18k

Foresight 2020

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AvrahamEisenberg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Billion-dollar betting markets predicted Kamala Harris' election loss to Donald Trump WEEKS before the experts

Daily Mail•Nov 11, 2024

How whizzkid Shayne Copland's startup Polymarket beat the polls to correctly predict Trump's win

Daily Mail•Nov 11, 2024

Polymarket and Kalshi Predicted Trump's Win. Now Comes the Hard Part.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at the start of 2027? (In billion USD)

4.18k