Question

How much global warming by 2100?

121 comments121

Total Forecasters552

Community Prediction2.98 (2.18 - 4.07)

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community

lower 25%

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upper 75%

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2.181

2.985

4.066

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Dec 21, 2017

Closes:

Jan 1, 2101

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

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Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

97%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-12-23

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Dec 21, 2017

Closes:

Jan 1, 2101

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Terrifying study predicts exactly how many people will DIE from climate change by 2099

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

Dangerous temperatures could kill 50% more Europeans by 2100, study finds

Guardian•Jan 27, 2025

What climate records were broken in 2024?

Al Jazeera•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

97%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-12-23

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%