Question

How much global warming by 2100?

Total Forecasters559

Community Prediction3.05 (2.23 - 4.14)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2.225	3.05	4.142
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2.225	—
median	3.05	—
upper 75%	4.142	—

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Dec 21, 2017

Closes:

Jan 1, 2101

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Earth's strongest ocean current is slowing down due to climate change - and the consequences could be disastrous

Daily Mail•Mar 3, 2025

Terrifying study predicts exactly how many people will DIE in fires caused by climate change by 2100

Daily Mail•Mar 3, 2025

Last month was the third warmest February on RECORD - with global average temperatures hitting 13.36°C

Daily Mail•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

96.5%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-05-23

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

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Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Dec 21, 2017

Closes:

Jan 1, 2101

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Earth's strongest ocean current is slowing down due to climate change - and the consequences could be disastrous

Daily Mail•Mar 3, 2025

Terrifying study predicts exactly how many people will DIE in fires caused by climate change by 2100

Daily Mail•Mar 3, 2025

Last month was the third warmest February on RECORD - with global average temperatures hitting 13.36°C

Daily Mail•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

96.5%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-05-23

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%