Question

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction3.92k (358 - 20.4k)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<50

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500k

...

18.0%

357.7

3.915k

20.41k

8.4%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Technology

Geopolitics

Federation of American Scientists

Global Zero (campaign)

Deterrence theory

What Is the Biggest Threat to the World in 2025?

Newsweek•Dec 31, 2024

US and Ally Draft Nuclear Weapons Rules Amid China, North Korea Threat

Newsweek•Dec 31, 2024

How Russia's Tactical Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Compares to US'

Newsweek•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Technology

Geopolitics

Federation of American Scientists

Global Zero (campaign)

Deterrence theory

What Is the Biggest Threat to the World in 2025?

Newsweek•Dec 31, 2024

US and Ally Draft Nuclear Weapons Rules Amid China, North Korea Threat

Newsweek•Dec 31, 2024

How Russia's Tactical Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Compares to US'

Newsweek•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

1.4%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.9k