Question

How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?

Resolved :549

-1

25 comments25

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction562

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<235

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

0.3%

544.2

561.6

588.3

0.3%

What was the final result?549

Community Baseline Score

59.5

Community Peer Score

10.0

Authors:

mattvdm

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

Amazon (company)

Toby Ord

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.51

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

mattvdm

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

Amazon (company)

Toby Ord

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

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Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.51

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%