Question

When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?

Resolved :Above upper bound2021-12-31

49 comments49

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction2021-12-31 (2021-12-31 - 2021-12-31)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2021-12-31

...

>2021-12-31 00:00

86.5%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score

80.1

Community Peer Score

101.7

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Food and Drug Administration

COVID-19 vaccine

Medicine

Trump's picks for top health jobs not just team of rivals but "team of opponents"

CBS•Dec 16, 2024

Russian Cancer Vaccine: Scientists 'Very Skeptical'

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

As health secretary, RFK Jr. could hold enormous influence over childhood vaccines

NBC•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before 2032 will a universal influenza vaccine be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

58%

Comments

? comments