Question

How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction1.74 (1.19 - 2.47)

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CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

<-0.5

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2.5

...

0.4%

1.186

1.742

2.467

24.2%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Jan 7, 2021

Closes:

Jul 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Natural Sciences

Technology

Neuroscience

Argus retinal prosthesis

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?

1.29

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

59%

When will Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) reach smartphone-level market penetration?

2055-05-23

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