M

Question

What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?

Resolved :20.321.4
3
5
Total Forecasters41
Community Prediction21.4 (20.8 - 21.6)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<14
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
...
0.5%
20.78
21.39
21.59

What was the final result?20.3

Community Baseline Score
12.7
Community Peer Score
36.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Forecasting AI Progress
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Artificial Intelligence
2021 Leaderboard
Linguistics
Data analysis

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