Question

Will the Metaculus predictions be within 5% of the community prediction for this question?

Resolved :No28%

21 comments21

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction28% (16% - 39%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.4

Community Peer Score

0.8

Authors:

alephNot

Opened:

Jan 11, 2018

Closes:

Jan 27, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2018

Sports & Entertainment

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2030 Challenge for fun: what will surprise Metaculus?

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

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