Question

How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction86.4 (51.6 - 125)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>250
community	51.57	86.44	124.6	1.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	51.57	—
median	86.44	—
upper 75%	124.6	—
Upper bound
>250	1.3%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 13, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

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How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?

394

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

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Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

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Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 13, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

Medicine

The colossal challenge of making a mammoth requires a lot of data centers

•Mar 5, 2025

Scientists trying to bring back the woolly mammoth end up with woolly mice

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

Researchers seek to demystify the biology of aging

CBS•Mar 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?

394

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

0.709

Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

19%