Question

Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?

Resolved :No17%

20 comments20

Total Forecasters104

Community Prediction17% (10% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Community Peer Score

7.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

VonnRussell

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Trump Suggests Pardoning Eric Adams, Jan. 6 Rioters—Here’s Who Else He Could Pardon

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Won’t Throw Out Trump’s Hush Money Conviction Because Of Immunity Ruling

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

The Looming Danger of Trump’s January 6 Pardons

Mother Jones•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Comments

? comments

Authors:

VonnRussell

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Trump Suggests Pardoning Eric Adams, Jan. 6 Rioters—Here’s Who Else He Could Pardon

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Won’t Throw Out Trump’s Hush Money Conviction Because Of Immunity Ruling

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

The Looming Danger of Trump’s January 6 Pardons

Mother Jones•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05