Question

Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?

Resolved :No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters104

Community Prediction17%

Make a Prediction

community: 17%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Community Peer Score

7.2

median 17.0%mean 20.7%

Authors:

VonnRussell

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

11%

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-16

Comments

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Authors:

VonnRussell

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nearly half of people convicted of the same crimes as Donald Trump are sent to prison, study finds

Independent•Oct 9, 2024

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Forbes•Oct 11, 2024

Ask Jordan: When will Trump's criminal cases end?

MSNBC•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

11%

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-16