Question

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

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Community Prediction49.9 (20.1 - 114)

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	<0.5	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>500
community	3.7%	20.06	49.93	113.9	5.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.5	3.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	20.06	—
median	49.93	—
upper 75%	113.9	—
Upper bound
>500	5.8%	—

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Jan 14, 2021

Closed:

Mar 13, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

May 31, 2030

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

TOP500

ISC High Performance

IEEE Supercomputing Conference

LINPACK benchmarks

Software engineering

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What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.6

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2.9×10¹⁸

What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates?

35.5

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