Question

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction52 (20.7 - 136)

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My Prediction

community

<0.5

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500

...

4.3%

20.68

51.97

136.2

7.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

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Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

TOP500

ISC High Performance

IEEE Supercomputing Conference

LINPACK benchmarks

Software engineering

Google has unveiled a new quantum computer chip that cracks a '30-year challenge in the field'

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

244

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.8

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

3×10¹⁸

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

TOP500

ISC High Performance

IEEE Supercomputing Conference

LINPACK benchmarks

Software engineering

Google has unveiled a new quantum computer chip that cracks a '30-year challenge in the field'

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

244

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.8

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

3×10¹⁸

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What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

Make a Prediction

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

Comments

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?