Question

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction51.6

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<0.5

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500

...

4.7%

20.62

51.65

132.5

7.0%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

TOP500

ISC High Performance

IEEE Supercomputing Conference

LINPACK benchmarks

Software engineering

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

244

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.9

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

3×10¹⁸

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

TOP500

ISC High Performance

IEEE Supercomputing Conference

LINPACK benchmarks

Software engineering

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Line go up.

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

244

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.9

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

3×10¹⁸